Very interesting. The narrative checks
a lot of boxes. Perhaps all of the boxes.
The points in the SIO on ZS's flight
simulator are certainly a compelling reason to believe that a flight
was simulated in that direction. Again, no hint of motive is
apparently provided by this new information. I say apparently because
it takes a little more thought, albeit speculative thought, to make
sense of it all.
Let's start with the Malay response to
the diversion in the first hour or two after the turn West near
IGARI. The response was below minimal standards. One could even
describe it as pathetic. Even the ICAO was critical of it, and that
is highly unusual for that organization(1).
Many people wondered why the response was not a “dialing until your
fingers bled” effort. A simple explanation is that the status (not
the exact location) of the aircraft was known. Third parties in KL
were attempting to negotiate concessions from the Malay leadership in
KL, with MH370 as the lever. The exact nature of those concessions
cannot be known, but there is certainly a large menu of options.
So ZS flew West from IGARI to play a
waiting game to the North and West of the Malay Peninsula – waiting
for word of success so that he could land the plane - Banda Aceh and
Car Nicobar being logical choices. That word never came, and the
“negotiation failed” response was to fly South and destroy the
aircraft in the SIO. While that action may seem extreme, it was the
only possible response. You cannot retreat from a situation like
that without carrying out the stated threat. Your chance of a
successful future negotiation is highly dependent on the other party
understanding that your ultimatums must be regarded very seriously.
So with the “negotiation failed”
result, ZS selected McMurdo Station as an AP destination, and
resigned himself to his fate. His ambition of becoming a national
hero was dashed, and he had to pay the price he knew full well was a
possible outcome of this bold plan. So why practice the route on his
simulator? Surely a pilot of his skill could execute that route
without practice. The simple and obvious answer was to indulge
curiosity. ZS wanted to know where the plane would run out of fuel,
and observe his final resting place on the planet.
The simulated route did not include the
turn near IGARI. The simulation was most likely done with the
assumption that the diversion would be performed on a route to
Europe. Scheduling and other constraints required a diversion from
the Beijing route. A European route would have been preferred, since
the diversion would not be noticed until the plane had flown well
past the Malay Peninsula.
I think the implication in the
“discussion” section of the latest IG narrative is excellent. A
logical place to look for the aircraft is where a flight path to
McMurdo crosses the Inmarsat 7th BTO arc. While the
precise location of the FMT in the actual route flown is a bit
“fuzzy”, the geometry reduces the spread in the 7th
arc crossing locations. Also the latitude of the crossing derived in
the IG narrative, ~27S, is far more consistent with the debris finds
(and lack of finds) than is ~38S.
