Random Comments - blogs et. al.

So Victor Iannello posted his latest paper on the Shah simulator data to Reddit.  One has to wonder why, as an IG member in good standing, that it was not published on Duncan Steel's blog. The simple answer, IMO, as that Duncan is a zealot. He has long been suffering under the illusion that the fate of MH370 can be solved with a spreadsheet and pure analytics. He has steadfastly refused to consider  human behavioral forensics as an acceptable investigative avenue. I am sure that Victor and Duncan remain friends. They are just divergent on what is relevant.

So it goes with the JW blog. It has largely been taken over by those who cling to the notion that it is somehow immoral and unacceptable to point the finger at Shah. Then we have Wise himself advocating the notion that agents of a sovereign state are running around the edges of the SIO planting debris.

I feel there is definitely a convergence taking place. The terminus is most likely in the 25S-27S range on the last range ring.

Public Service ??

sk999 recently (and generously) made a terrific info filled post on the JW blog. One of the many items posted were the orbital parameters for 3F1.

That document can be found here:

satellite.pdf

A Python (2.7) code implementation for computing satellite position and satellite velocity in the ECEF coordinate frame is copy pasted below:

POR parameters:
lsat = 178.078 deg
i = 1.0354 deg
e = 0.000519
rs = 42164.2 km
uto = 6.418 hr
utp = 0.0689 hr

Victor - 6 June 2017

Plain text below for copy/pasting into a file:

from math import pi,cos,sin

k = 15.041*2*pi/360 # radians per hour
rs = 42164.7 # km
i = 1.6401*2*pi/360
e = 0.00054
ut0 = 13.62 # decimal hours
utp = 7.607 # decimal hours

ut = input("time hrs.xx: ") # e.g. 00:11 input as 24.1833
nu = k*(ut-utp)
phi = k*(ut-ut0)

xr = rs*(1 + 0.25*i*i*(cos(2*phi) - 1) - e*cos(nu))
yr = rs*(-0.25*i*i*sin(2*phi) + 2*e*sin(nu))
z = rs*i*sin(phi)

vxr = rs*k*(-0.5*i*i*sin(2*phi) + e*sin(nu))
vyr = rs*k*(-0.5*i*i*cos(2*phi) + 2*e*cos(nu))
vz = rs*k*i*cos(phi)

# rotate xr, yr, vxr, vyr to ECEF

theta = 2*pi*64.516/360

x = xr*cos(theta) - yr*sin(theta)
y = xr*sin(theta) + yr*cos(theta)
vx = vxr*cos(theta) - vyr*sin(theta)
vy = vxr*sin(theta) + vyr*cos(theta)

print 'x:',"%0.1f" % x,'km'
print 'y:',"%0.1f" % y,'km'
print 'z:',"%0.1f" % z,'km'

# scale velocities from km/hr to km/sec

vx = vx/3600
vy = vy/3600
vz = vz/3600

print 'x_dot:',"%0.5f" % vx,'km/sec'
print 'y_dot:',"%0.5f" % vy,'km/sec'
print 'z_dot:',"%0.5f" % vz,'km/sec'

Path to the Cocos

So, the simulator points found on Shah's shadow drive (and deleted) are quite interesting, and beg for an explanation. Recently Iannello and Godfrey speculated that the terminal points (~45S ~104E) might have been the result of selecting McMurdo Station in Antarctic as a destination. Of course, the aircraft ran out of fuel before reaching McMurdo at the 45S 104E points found on the simulator. The question addressed by Iannello and Godfrey is where would MH370 terminate on the 7th arc using McMurdo as a destination. That work can be found here.

Iannello and Godfrey - McMurdo

Another way to look at the same question is to postulate that the Cocos were used as a destination in Shah's simulation, and the aircraft simply continued past the Cocos and ran out of fuel. This short note takes a quick look at how that scenario plays out.

The track, great circle, from the 19:40 range ring to the Cocos is shown below (green line). The track was extended past the Cocos maintaining the great circle trajectory,

The small "star" North and West of the "4" range ring marker denotes the Cocos.

For simplicity a fixed ground speed of 480knots and a fixed track of 169 degrees was used to create the path.  The details associated with this choice are shown in the spreadsheet below. A late FMT was used in this path as was used by Iannello and Godfrey.

Obviously refinements can (and should) be made using wind, mach number, air temperature, and magnetic heading (as opposed to true track) after the Cocos. Those refinements can be added later. This effort was intended to be a "quick look".

As is my custom, I stopped the calculations at 00:11. The 00:11 location is 27.1S and 101.1E. The Iannello and Godfrey 00:11 location using McMurdo station as a destination is 26.08S 100.36E.  I would characterize the BFO errors associated with the Cocos destination as comparable to the errors obtained by Iannello and Godfrey using McMurdo as a destination.

It should be noted that if the great circle is extended to ~45S the corresponding latitude is ~105E.

Update: 24 November 2016

A recent publication by Mike Chillit suggests a terminus near the Batavia Seamount based on flight path and drifter considerations. That paper can be found at the link below.

Mike Chillit - Batavia Seamount

A screen capture of a graphic from the linked paper shows the suggested terminus below.

The Batavia Seamount location (25.75S 100.33E) is added to my flightpath derived above in the graphic below. The Batavia Seamount is approximately 80nm North of my derived terminus.

An interesting take-away from the Chillit paper is the drifter data he includes. I had not seen or been aware of this data previously. It certainly lends credibility to the terminal locations above.

A close-up of the above with the Iannello and Godrey McMurdo based terminus (pin labeled I&G) is shown below.

Drifter summary from referenced Chillit post.

Crime Fighting Macbook (new stickies!!)

Cellphone Connect

It has been rumored for some time that Fariq Hamid's (MH370 FO) cellphone connected to a tower near Penang. A page from the Malaysian Police investigation recently appeared in the public domain (se JW blog) stating that the connection indeed took place to a Celcom basestation located at Banda Baru Air Itam. It was further stated that this basestation has a range of 32km.

Graphic below shows the location of this basestation along with other points of interest. The black circle in the graphic has a radius of 32km.

Edit 16Nov16

The time of the registration (~17:52) coupled with the time and distance to the last radar contact (18:22 and  250 nm respectively) suggest that the average speed of the aircraft over that distance was -500 knots). That in turn would imply the registration occurred when the aircraft was above 20,000 feet.

Screen Capture MacPro MH370 "Stickies"

What we know with VERY HIGH confidence. 

(click image to enlarge)