Thursday, December 31, 2015

So What's Up with the French ?

People almost always do things for a reason, even French people. So why have the French not made public any information regarding the damage forensics of the flaperon recovered on La Reunion? There seems to be little if any discussion about this lack of disclosure. How the flaperon was damaged would seem to be important relative to whether the forensics support aerodynamic damage and in-flight separation (consistent with a high speed dive) or whether the forensics support damage and separation from impacting the water while extended (consistent with a controlled ditch).

As everyone knows, the French have opened a criminal investigation relative to the disappearance of 9M-MRO. This formality allows the French to claim that the forensic information is "sealed" as part of an ongoing investigation. OK, but why - unless the forensic information points to a scenario that involves parties that may be guilty of a criminal act even if that act was simple negligence? Withholding of information allows investigators maximum freedom to probe the periphery of this disappearance. Releasing information that does not support the status quo would alert guilty parties, and increase their sense of caution. It is difficult to postulate a reason for withholding information that supports the status quo.



















My sense is that there may be evidence from the flaperon forensics that suggests something is or was going on that is inconsistent with publicly available information.

What this "something" might be is subject to speculation. Suppose the flaperon forensics support a controlled ditch. Suppose further that barnacle analysis makes the current search area even less likely than the drift modeling already suggests. If the forensics supports a controlled ditch well North of the current search area, the landscape surrounding this mystery would be altered substantially. Questions regarding that flight path would certainly be raised, and areas of inquiry would be expanded. Perhaps the French do not want this to happen, at least not yet.