MH370 Debris Finds Revisited (March 2017)

Some time ago I did a Weibull prediction related to the rate of MH370 debris finds. It was quite predictable up to the 13 month period from the flaperon find. Now things have tailed off considerably. No recent confirmed finds have been made. Not sure if this is because there is no more debris left to be found or if no one is actively engaged in looking for it.

original Weibull

Updated Weibull plot below. The last red dot is imaginary, and represents how the data would look if a new piece of debris were found today (some 20 months after the flaperon find). Obviously, the dot is well off of the predicted Weibull debris recovery curve based on the rate of debris recovery for the first year or so after the flaperon find.

If the debris found on 01-28-17 in South Africa near East London is included as valid MH370 debris the CDF would appear as below.  The last red dot is now "real" but the assumed debris find a couple of months (end of January 2017) earlier than the "imaginary" find (end of March 2017) above makes little difference in the conclusion.

If the above find and the "Morkel find" in December of 2016 are both included, the CDF is as below.